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Plan a monthly investment without treating returns as a promise

A worked SIP example: compare return assumptions, adjust for inflation, and turn a projected balance into a practical savings plan.

Published 2 min read Educational example, not personal advice

In short

  • A projection answers “what if this return happened?”, not “what will happen?”.
  • Compare in today's money: at 3% inflation, $255,203 in 20 years buys about what $141,300 buys now.
  • If a plan only works at the optimistic return, change the contribution, date, or goal instead of the assumption.
Open the $500 monthly example

Start with the decision, not the biggest projected number

A monthly-investment calculator answers a conditional question: what could regular contributions become if the chosen return were achieved? It does not tell you which fund to buy or whether that return is likely. First write down your goal date, the cost in today's money, and the amount you can contribute after essential spending, debt payments, and an emergency reserve.

Use the same currency for contributions and the goal. Changing the currency label is not a foreign-exchange conversion. For a fixed-date expense, also consider how you would fund a shortfall if markets fell just before the money was needed.

Worked example: $500 a month for 20 years

The total contribution is $120,000. With deposits at the start of each month and no annual contribution increase, a steady 7% annual effective return produces approximately $255,203. At 4% it produces $182,516; at 10%, $361,993. These are illustrations, not an expected-return range or a forecast.

$500 a month for 20 years, deposited at the start of each month
Annual returnYou put inFinal balanceIn today's money
4%$120,000$182,516$101,055
7%$120,000$255,203$141,300
10%$120,000$361,993$200,427

Today's money assumes 3% annual inflation. Illustrations, not forecasts.

At 3% annual inflation, the 7% scenario's final balance has purchasing power of approximately $141,300 in today's money. Compare that figure with today's goal cost, or compare the future balance with the inflated future goal cost. Mixing today's cost with a future balance makes a plan look better funded than it is.

The monthly growth rate is (1 + 0.07)^(1/12) - 1, not 7% divided by 12. Each month the model adds $500 and then applies that growth rate. An end-of-month deposit would earn one fewer month of growth, so another calculator using different timing can give a different answer without either being arithmetically wrong.

What to change when the goal is underfunded

Try a lower return assumption before increasing the contribution. If the plan only works at the optimistic rate, the problem is not solved by typing a higher return. Compare a larger monthly amount, a later goal date, a smaller goal, and a gradual annual contribution increase that your income can realistically support.

A step-up SIP adds more money as well as earning more growth. Compare total contributions alongside the final balance; do not attribute the entire difference to compounding. Use the goal-based SIP tool when you know the target and date and need to solve for the monthly contribution.

Check before committing real money

The illustration excludes tax, product fees, missed contributions, and variable market returns. Fees reduce the return you keep; taxation depends on the account, asset, and jurisdiction. Enter an assumption consistent with those costs, and do not subtract the same cost twice.

Save a conservative and a central scenario, then revisit them when your income, goal cost, or time horizon changes. A projection is useful as a comparison tool, not as a substitute for checking product disclosures or seeking regulated advice when your circumstances require it.

Test it with your own numbers

Sources and scope

The worked examples and interpretations above are original to this site. These resources provide background education; they do not endorse our tools or validate your chosen assumptions.

Found an error? Report a correction on GitHub. Include the page and assumptions, but do not post private financial information.

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